The Rural Data Deficit
Data gaps & urban centric investment models are slowing the transition to rural e-mobility - Social Return on Investment (SROI) might be the key to catalysing action.
In preparing to write this week’s newsletter, I asked Chat GPT (5.2) the following question.
Would you agree or disagree that as a Chatbot trained on massive data sets, your knowledge about rural areas is weaker than urban ones due to gaps in digital infrastructure and reliable real-time data?
The answer I got was as follows:
AI systems like me are trained on massive datasets pulled from publicly available web content, academic research, government publications, and other digital sources. These sources are not evenly distributed, and that inequality reflects broader structural realities — including the digital infrastructure gap between rural and urban areas. So yes — the breadth, specificity, and freshness of my knowledge about rural areas tends to be weaker than for urban ones, particularly when it comes to:
Fine-grained behavioural data
Local infrastructure conditions
Hyper-local policy impacts
Lived experiences not documented in public, digitized sources)
At least it’s being honest and admitting it’s weaknesses! It speaks to the fact that when we discuss the role that data plays in informing climate change policy development and investment decisions, we must recognise that our knowledge of rural places is patchy at best.
For avoid of doubt, when I refer to data, I’m mean digital data not information that’s written down on paper.
This is a here and now issue.
Decisions made today that feed old and incomplete data into business case models and impact assessments designed for urban places will have long-term consequences for rural communities.
It’s also a cross-cutting issue. It’s not just about decarbonising transport. It affects the steps taken to decarbonise housing, offices, agriculture, and the other sectors that are the drivers of the rural economy.
I’m not an academic nor a policy maker who specialises in the field of researching rural economies. Nonetheless, I’ve read enough of publications that they’ve produced and had many conversations with them to confirm that they are helping to shine a light on the magnitude of the rural data poverty issue. However, pointing out the problems without taking action to fix them isn’t real progress. A bit like a doctor telling me that I have a heart condition (I don’t buy the way) but not providing a treatment plan.
At the root of all poverty lies scarcity. To be poor is to be lacking in things that are essential to a good quality of life. Money, food, housing, and human connections being notable examples. So too data poverty. digitised data is scarce for 3 main reasons.
It’s never been collected (or if it has very infrequently).
Information is collected regularly but stored in paper based formats.
It’s held under lock and key by an organisation(s) due to its commercially sensitivity.
No matter which part of the country you look at - from the largest city to smallest village - all 3 of these reasons hold true. What distinguishes rural is the severity of the poverty.
Gaps in digital infrastructure limit the ability to collect virgin data or refresh existing data on a timely basis. Decisions are often made using data that is many years old.
The rural landscape is dominated by micro-business who still to varying degrees using paper based formats to collect information from customers and suppliers. Ironically, they are doing so not because they want to but because a a lack of high speed broadband connectivity at their property forces them to continue using paper.
Small businesses are equally paranoid about sharing data that they deem to be commercially sensitive. The idea of handing it over in support of broader climate change initiatives fills them with horror. Especially, if it’s an organisation they are unfamiliar with.
Why the Urgency?
The urgency with which rural data poverty must be tackled cannot be overstated. In spite of low population densities, rural households and businesses are large consumers of fossil fuel generated energy.
Older, poorly insulated off-grid homes use lots of heating oil.
Vehicles use more petrol and diesel because they have to drive further to reach their destinations.
On our rural coasts, ferries, fishing trawlers, oil/gas supply vessels, and barges are diesel thirsty. Many are operating well beyond their intended lifespan becoming less fuel efficient as every year passes.
Farms, distilleries and factories use lots of electricity and diesel fuel.
If it’s blindingly clear that we have a big problem on our hands, why isn’t it being tackled with more urgency?
I suggest that it’s a lot to do with the models used to calculate financial returns from rural infrastructure projects.
The Problem with Classical ROI Calculations & Subsidies
Way back in my university days, the importance of ROI was drummed into me during my undergraduate business economics degree. Ever since, in every business case I’ve been asked to develop, ROI plays the starring role. If a positive ROI isn’t achievable within a few years then it’s a big thumbs down.
The problem with the classical way of calculating ROI is that it looks pretty shaky when applied to many aspects of how rural life today and in the future.
Populations are ageing and numbers declining (or at best static).
Many of the businesses that for generations have been the foundations of thriving communities are closing (or at best downsizing). Before you jump down my throat, yes, it’s not all doom and gloom, there are growing businesses to be found around the country, but they are outnumbered by those heading in the other direction.
Tourist dependent rural economies are seasonal. All go, go, go over the spring and summer but much quieter during late autumn and the winter.
The immediate effects of climate change are having the most severe impact in the countryside and on our coasts. They are bearing the brunt of storm damage. Storms that occur at a greater level of frequency throughout the year (not just winter months). The costs of repeatedly having to repair broken electricity and telecoms lines don’t look good in a business case!
Absent of Government subsidies, this all adds up to a big, fat red ROI number in business cases. Why would you invest in building infrastructure in places that are seemingly in permanent decline?
Of course, it’s subsidies that always save the day. Massive subsides to build any type of infrastructure. Wind turbines, Fixed and Mobile broadband networks, EV charging networks….
But subsidies will never be a long-term solution in the decades to come because our Government (and others around the Western World) are drowning in debt. They simply can’t dish out subsidies to the same levels as they have in decades past. Wherever we look, there is a proverbial begging bowl being put in front of an MP.
If, as I’m arguing, fixing the data poverty problem is the key to turning around the fortunes of the UK’s rural economy, and if the traditional approaches to investing in them are fast becoming redundant, then we need to pivot to something else. Something that looks beyond the “x £/$ in and y £/$ out” mindset.
A Solution - What Happens When We put an S in front of ROI?
Not to go all Sesame Street but today S stands for Social. Add it to ROI and we have Social Return on Investment (SROI). It’s an amazing what how one word can change your thinking. It changes the focus from economic/financial to people based outcomes.
I can’t lay claim to thinking up SROI, but I will declare that while not a perfect solution, it’s possibly the best metric we have to drive the change that’s needed.
SROI, or more simply, Social Value, is being adopted and used by many organisations (especially in the public sector). It’s their way of showing that they really care about the places they have involvement in. To what degree they really care is an open question. There’s a difference between being told you have to do something and really wanting to do it. Public sector organisations, for example, must include social value as an evaluation metric in their tenders even though it’s a bit of a headache for them to administer (more paperwork).
Where SROI really comes to life, and proves its worth is in low population density places. Suddenly, the focus is on measuring how every £ invested in a project improved the lives of local people. This plays out in lots of ways:
Did the investment help to connect more people and reduce social isolation?
Did it help to reduce housing shortages that blight rural communities?
Did it support upskilling/re-skilling efforts that reduce outward migration and create new businesses in growth sectors?
Did it reduce fuel and transport poverty that increases social mobility.
All of the above questions are rarely asked in traditional business cases because, by and large, they are focused on extracting wealth for the few, rather than creating wealth for the many.
An Action Plan for Rural Data Poverty - How to Put Social Return on Investment to Work?
To tackle rural data poverty and unlock investment, SROI can be used not just as a reporting tool but as a strategic framework for securing funding and driving infrastructure deployment. Here’s what that might look like in practice:
Local Mapping of Data Gaps and Social Impacts
Action: Conduct community-led assessments to identify where the absence of data is limiting decisions (e.g. no EV charging data, no traffic sensor coverage, no visibility into rural fleet types).
Outcome: Create a “data deprivation map” with estimated social costs — e.g. higher fuel poverty, reduced access to services, lack of transport planning.
SROI Link: This quantifies who is harmed by missing data — a key starting point for valuing interventions.
Embed SROI in Local Infrastructure Business Cases
Action: When developing funding bids for EV charging, sensor networks, or rural mobility pilots, include SROI forecasts.
Example Metrics:
· Increased access to essential services
· Reduction in social isolation
· Jobs created via digital installation or monitoring
· CO₂ reductions per household or trip
Outcome: Move the narrative from “this doesn’t make financial sense” to “this creates measurable community value.”
Build Local Capacity to Measure Social Value
Action: Train local councils, LEPs, or community groups in basic SROI frameworks (tools like HACT Social Value Bank or NEF SROI Guide can help).
Outcome: Communities aren’t waiting for national agencies — they can build their own social value baselines and feed them into regional policy.
Use SROI to Unlock Alternative Funding
Action: Partner with social investors, foundations, or public innovation funds that care about social outcomes (not just hard returns).
Outcome: Position digital and data infrastructure as enablers of inclusion and equity, not just tech projects.
Incentivise Data Sharing Through SROI Credits
Action: Offer micro-businesses social value incentives (recognition, credits, subsidies) for sharing anonymised data — e.g. on transport use, logistics, or fuel consumption.
Outcome: Start to unlock “locked-up” data by tying it to measurable local benefit, not just abstract research goals.
Final Thoughts
Rural data poverty isn’t just a technical challenge — it’s a social justice issue. If we want climate transition to be fair and effective, we need to measure what truly matters: not just what comes in, but what comes back to the people and places investing in their future.